#WeWantTheCup
After last nights 6-3 win over Colombus hockey-reference.com has the Islanders listed with a 99.8% probability of making the playoffs. Obviously a catastrophic injury could change that, but unlike last year when the Islanders were barely above the line when they lost Tavares to an ACL, the Islanders have put themselves in a great spot here and I’m loving every minute of it.
It’s Happening
If something were to happen to Tavares or Halak it’s hard to imagine any kind of long run in the playoffs anyway. Already having lost Okposo, the second biggest offensive weapon and one of the hearts of the team, for a few weeks they seem to be regaining themselves after a quick losing streak. Some of the young talent drafted by the Islanders in the past few years are really keeping the team afloat. Ryan Strome (2011), Brock Nelson (2010), and Anders Lee (2009) have combined for 43 goals and 53 assists including 8 game winning goals. Lee being 24 is the oldest of the 3.
Based on some in-depth* research I found that in the last ten years 93 points would have all but guaranteed a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Isles are sitting at 75 points through 56 games. They have 26 games left to find another 18 points. That’s about 1 win every four games for the rest of the season. Sitting at a .660 win percentage and averaging 1.34 points per game means that they will more realistically finish around 110 points for the season if they keep up this pace.
At 1.34 ppg it would take another 13.4 games to get to 18 points. So whether it’s mathematically true or not I’m going to be celebrating an Islanders playoff berth on Friday March 13th following a win of Ottawa. I’ve already added it to my calendar so that I don’t forget.
Doubling Down
On a somewhat related note, I’ll be heading to Vegas on Thursday for what will be trip 1 of 2 (or 3)** this year. I’m getting a little ahead of myself but I’m an irrational sports fan so it’s ok. I’m going to place some Islanders future bets. Vegas Insider currently has their odds at 8-1 for the Cup and 4-1 to come out of the East. Something seems strange here since I can’t figure out why the Bruins would be favored over them in each category. Taking it at face value my initial thought is to split my bet on both. I’d even be happy with a couple of losses this week just to get slightly better odds when throw down my money with the first bet I make Thursday night.
*About 3-minutes
**Or 4? 5?
for more profundity or pithy humor follow me on twitter – @bicb
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